Target Price Playground
ADBE
$225.35
๐ข
ADBE IV: 43.5% โ LOW
(-26.6% vs 30d avg of 59.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.99 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.18 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADBE hits $260 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-117 (-3.2%) on $3,617 risked, vs +$3,465 (15.4%) for 100 shares on $22,535. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADBE is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADBE hits $260 by Jun 19
$-117
-3.2% on $3,617 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,617
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$261.17
+15.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.99 / -27.71 / 75.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADBE Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 (-20%) | +$1,193 | +$980 | +$837 | +$855 |
| $192 (-15%) | +$513 | +$165 | -$164 | -$272 |
| $203 (-10%) | +$47 | -$428 | -$973 | -$1,398 |
| $214 (-5%) | -$181 | -$752 | -$1,474 | -$2,525 |
| $221 (-2%) | -$201 | -$807 | -$1,592 | -$3,201 |
| $225 (0%) โ spot | -$167 | -$785 | -$1,589 | -$3,582 |
| $230 (+2%) | -$96 | -$719 | -$1,524 | -$3,131 |
| $237 (+5%) | +$76 | -$538 | -$1,314 | -$2,455 |
| $248 (+10%) | +$524 | -$45 | -$712 | -$1,328 |
| $260 (+15%) โ target | +$1,197 | +$704 | +$192 | -$117 |
| $270 (+20%) | +$1,903 | +$1,486 | +$1,103 | +$925 |
Uses ADBE's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.