Target Price Playground
ADEA
$26.87
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.33 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $25 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.41 ยท ฮ -0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADEA hits $24 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$158 (171.0%) on $92 risked, vs $-337 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $2,687. Options give 13.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADEA is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADEA hits $24 by Jun 19
+$158
+171.0% on $92 risked
Max Profit
+$158
If the stock โค $24 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$92
Net debit
Break-even
$26.08
-2.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-26.52 / -0.21 / 1.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADEA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 (-20%) | +$135 | +$144 | +$154 | +$158 |
| $23 (-15%) | +$111 | +$123 | +$140 | +$158 |
| $24 (-13%) โ target | +$95 | +$106 | +$125 | +$158 |
| $24 (-10%) | +$77 | +$86 | +$103 | +$158 |
| $26 (-5%) | +$38 | +$40 | +$43 | +$55 |
| $26 (-2%) | +$15 | +$12 | +$5 | -$25 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$6 | -$18 | -$79 |
| $27 (+2%) | -$14 | -$22 | -$38 | -$92 |
| $28 (+5%) | -$32 | -$42 | -$60 | -$92 |
| $30 (+10%) | -$56 | -$67 | -$81 | -$92 |
| $31 (+15%) | -$72 | -$80 | -$89 | -$92 |
| $32 (+20%) | -$81 | -$87 | -$91 | -$92 |
Uses ADEA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.