Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADEA hits $28 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$41 (1.7%) on $-41 credit (max loss $2,409), vs +$113 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $2,687. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADEA is at $28. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADEA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 (-20%) | -$266 | -$259 | -$255 | -$259 |
| $23 (-15%) | -$166 | -$152 | -$136 | -$125 |
| $24 (-10%) | -$89 | -$70 | -$45 | +$9 |
| $26 (-5%) | -$34 | -$16 | +$8 | +$41 |
| $26 (-2%) | -$12 | +$5 | +$25 | +$41 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$15 | +$32 | +$41 |
| $27 (+2%) | +$10 | +$23 | +$36 | +$41 |
| $28 (+4%) โ target | +$18 | +$29 | +$38 | +$41 |
| $30 (+10%) | +$31 | +$37 | +$41 | +$41 |
| $31 (+15%) | +$37 | +$40 | +$41 | +$41 |
| $32 (+20%) | +$39 | +$41 | +$41 | +$41 |