Target Price Playground
ADEA
$26.87
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.33 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADEA hits $24 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$217 (163.4%) on $133 risked, vs $-337 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $2,687. Options give 13.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADEA is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADEA hits $24 by Jun 19
+$217
+163.4% on $133 risked
Max Profit
+$2,567
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$133
Premium paid
Break-even
$25.67
-4.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.38 / -0.85 / 4.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADEA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 (-20%) | +$400 | +$404 | +$409 | +$417 |
| $23 (-15%) | +$277 | +$275 | +$276 | +$283 |
| $24 (-13%) โ target | +$221 | +$215 | +$212 | +$217 |
| $24 (-10%) | +$166 | +$157 | +$148 | +$149 |
| $26 (-5%) | +$73 | +$55 | +$34 | +$14 |
| $26 (-2%) | +$27 | +$7 | -$20 | -$66 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$21 | -$50 | -$120 |
| $27 (+2%) | -$23 | -$45 | -$73 | -$133 |
| $28 (+5%) | -$52 | -$73 | -$99 | -$133 |
| $30 (+10%) | -$87 | -$104 | -$122 | -$133 |
| $31 (+15%) | -$108 | -$120 | -$130 | -$133 |
| $32 (+20%) | -$120 | -$128 | -$132 | -$133 |
Uses ADEA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.