Target Price Playground
ADEA
$26.87
Forward Projection
If price hits $30 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $26.87 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $26 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.88 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADEA hits $30 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$225 (8.1%) on $2,775 risked, vs +$313 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $2,687. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADEA is at $30. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADEA hits $30 by Jun 19
+$225
+8.1% on $2,775 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$175
Put floors you at $26
Break-even
$27.75
+3.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.97 / -0.83 / 4.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADEA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 (-20%) | -$186 | -$185 | -$182 | -$175 |
| $23 (-15%) | -$168 | -$174 | -$179 | -$175 |
| $24 (-10%) | -$133 | -$148 | -$164 | -$175 |
| $26 (-5%) | -$77 | -$97 | -$123 | -$175 |
| $26 (-2%) | -$34 | -$54 | -$82 | -$142 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$21 | -$47 | -$88 |
| $27 (+2%) | +$36 | +$17 | -$7 | -$34 |
| $28 (+5%) | +$96 | +$79 | +$59 | +$46 |
| $30 (+10%) | +$207 | +$195 | +$184 | +$181 |
| $30 (+12%) โ target | +$246 | +$235 | +$227 | +$225 |
| $31 (+15%) | +$328 | +$321 | +$316 | +$315 |
| $32 (+20%) | +$455 | +$451 | +$449 | +$449 |
Uses ADEA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.