Target Price Playground
ADEA
$26.87
Forward Projection
If price hits $31 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.42 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.33 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADEA hits $31 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$125 (45.5%) on $275 risked, vs +$413 (15.4%) for 100 shares on $2,687. Options give 3.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADEA is at $31. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADEA hits $31 by Jun 19
+$125
+45.5% on $275 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$275
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$24.25
-9.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.25 / -2.04 / 9.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADEA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $22 (-20%) | +$264 | +$263 | +$267 | +$275 |
| $23 (-15%) | +$152 | +$140 | +$135 | +$141 |
| $24 (-10%) | +$64 | +$37 | +$13 | +$7 |
| $26 (-5%) | +$11 | -$30 | -$80 | -$128 |
| $26 (-2%) | -$1 | -$48 | -$108 | -$208 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$49 | -$113 | -$262 |
| $27 (+2%) | +$7 | -$43 | -$107 | -$234 |
| $28 (+5%) | +$30 | -$19 | -$79 | -$154 |
| $30 (+10%) | +$95 | +$54 | +$11 | -$19 |
| $31 (+15%) โ target | +$194 | +$164 | +$138 | +$125 |
| $32 (+20%) | +$296 | +$274 | +$258 | +$249 |
Uses ADEA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.