Target Price Playground
ADI
$350.14
๐ข
ADI IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 72.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $320 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.6 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $310 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,890 (170.3%) on $1,110 risked, vs $-4,014 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $35,014. Options give 14.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $310 by Jun 19
+$1,890
+170.3% on $1,110 risked
Max Profit
+$1,890
If the stock โค $320 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,110
Net debit
Break-even
$338.90
-3.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.91 / -1.64 / 10.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $280 (-20%) | +$1,483 | +$1,616 | +$1,787 | +$1,890 |
| $298 (-15%) | +$1,199 | +$1,331 | +$1,556 | +$1,890 |
| $310 (-11%) โ target | +$954 | +$1,058 | +$1,259 | +$1,890 |
| $315 (-10%) | +$845 | +$931 | +$1,104 | +$1,890 |
| $333 (-5%) | +$460 | +$469 | +$488 | +$627 |
| $343 (-2%) | +$232 | +$191 | +$107 | -$424 |
| $350 (0%) โ spot | +$86 | +$16 | -$127 | -$1,110 |
| $357 (+2%) | -$53 | -$148 | -$337 | -$1,110 |
| $368 (+5%) | -$245 | -$368 | -$596 | -$1,110 |
| $385 (+10%) | -$513 | -$657 | -$881 | -$1,110 |
| $403 (+15%) | -$716 | -$852 | -$1,022 | -$1,110 |
| $420 (+20%) | -$860 | -$972 | -$1,080 | -$1,110 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.