Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $370 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,060 (3.4%) on $-1,060 credit (max loss $30,940), vs +$1,986 (5.7%) for 100 shares on $35,014. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $280 (-20%) | -$3,252 | -$3,090 | -$2,941 | -$2,929 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$2,035 | -$1,779 | -$1,467 | -$1,178 |
| $315 (-10%) | -$1,061 | -$747 | -$329 | +$573 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$329 | -$10 | +$406 | +$1,060 |
| $343 (-2%) | +$6 | +$306 | +$675 | +$1,060 |
| $350 (0%) โ spot | +$190 | +$471 | +$798 | +$1,060 |
| $357 (+2%) | +$347 | +$605 | +$886 | +$1,060 |
| $370 (+6%) โ target | +$574 | +$785 | +$983 | +$1,060 |
| $385 (+10%) | +$758 | +$914 | +$1,033 | +$1,060 |
| $403 (+15%) | +$891 | +$994 | +$1,053 | +$1,060 |
| $420 (+20%) | +$969 | +$1,032 | +$1,058 | +$1,060 |