Target Price Playground
ADI
$350.14
๐ข
ADI IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 72.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $350.14 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.87 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $385 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,099 (5.8%) on $36,401 risked, vs +$3,486 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $35,014. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $385 by Jun 19
+$2,099
+5.8% on $36,401 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,901
Put floors you at $335
Break-even
$364.01
+3.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.87 / -13.63 / 55.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $280 (-20%) | -$2,825 | -$2,916 | -$2,963 | -$2,901 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$2,451 | -$2,646 | -$2,843 | -$2,901 |
| $315 (-10%) | -$1,866 | -$2,150 | -$2,506 | -$2,901 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$1,047 | -$1,380 | -$1,825 | -$2,901 |
| $343 (-2%) | -$445 | -$782 | -$1,230 | -$2,087 |
| $350 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$331 | -$760 | -$1,387 |
| $357 (+2%) | +$477 | +$158 | -$239 | -$687 |
| $368 (+5%) | +$1,248 | +$957 | +$623 | +$364 |
| $385 (+10%) โ target | +$2,644 | +$2,414 | +$2,192 | +$2,099 |
| $403 (+15%) | +$4,187 | +$4,021 | +$3,894 | +$3,865 |
| $420 (+20%) | +$5,801 | +$5,690 | +$5,624 | +$5,616 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.