Target Price Playground
ADI
$350.14
๐ข
ADI IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 72.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.1 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $405 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,020 (22.8%) on $4,480 risked, vs +$5,486 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $35,014. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $405 by Jun 19
+$1,020
+22.8% on $4,480 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,480
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$394.80
+12.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.83 / -34.33 / 117.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $280 (-20%) | +$2,629 | +$2,478 | +$2,428 | +$2,509 |
| $298 (-15%) | +$1,378 | +$1,036 | +$767 | +$758 |
| $315 (-10%) | +$473 | -$76 | -$663 | -$993 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$12 | -$727 | -$1,614 | -$2,743 |
| $343 (-2%) | -$87 | -$862 | -$1,862 | -$3,794 |
| $350 (0%) โ spot | -$48 | -$843 | -$1,877 | -$4,466 |
| $357 (+2%) | +$61 | -$739 | -$1,773 | -$3,766 |
| $368 (+5%) | +$348 | -$433 | -$1,409 | -$2,715 |
| $385 (+10%) | +$1,121 | +$426 | -$354 | -$965 |
| $405 (+16%) โ target | +$2,363 | +$1,809 | +$1,284 | +$1,020 |
| $420 (+20%) | +$3,507 | +$3,063 | +$2,699 | +$2,537 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.