Target Price Playground
ADI
$350.14
๐ข
ADI IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-48.1% vs 30d avg of 72.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $350.14 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.8 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADI hits $380 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,066 (12.0%) on $33,934 risked, vs +$2,986 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $35,014. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADI is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADI hits $380 by Jun 19
+$4,066
+12.0% on $33,934 risked
Max Profit
+$4,066
If the stock โฅ $380 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,934
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$339.34
-3.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.38 / 15.3 / -54.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $280 (-20%) | -$5,986 | -$5,939 | -$5,923 | -$5,923 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$4,334 | -$4,230 | -$4,177 | -$4,172 |
| $315 (-10%) | -$2,780 | -$2,589 | -$2,450 | -$2,421 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$1,367 | -$1,073 | -$793 | -$671 |
| $343 (-2%) | -$602 | -$247 | +$132 | +$380 |
| $350 (0%) โ spot | -$132 | +$260 | +$704 | +$1,080 |
| $357 (+2%) | +$306 | +$729 | +$1,233 | +$1,780 |
| $368 (+5%) | +$901 | +$1,361 | +$1,933 | +$2,831 |
| $380 (+9%) โ target | +$1,504 | +$1,987 | +$2,599 | +$4,066 |
| $385 (+10%) | +$1,726 | +$2,212 | +$2,826 | +$4,066 |
| $403 (+15%) | +$2,359 | +$2,828 | +$3,393 | +$4,066 |
| $420 (+20%) | +$2,823 | +$3,245 | +$3,707 | +$4,066 |
Uses ADI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.