Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 33.1% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.3 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.8 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $165 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$950 (172.7%) on $550 risked, vs $-2,379 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 13.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $165 by Jun 19
+$950
+172.7% on $550 risked
Max Profit
+$950
If the stock โค $175 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$550
Net debit
Break-even
$184.50
-2.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.84 / -0.63 / 5.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$800 | +$860 | +$925 | +$950 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$666 | +$737 | +$844 | +$950 |
| $165 (-13%) โ target | +$583 | +$650 | +$764 | +$950 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$482 | +$538 | +$642 | +$950 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$272 | +$287 | +$319 | +$515 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$144 | +$132 | +$106 | -$51 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$62 | +$33 | -$28 | -$429 |
| $193 (+2%) | -$17 | -$60 | -$148 | -$550 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$124 | -$184 | -$295 | -$550 |
| $208 (+10%) | -$271 | -$341 | -$448 | -$550 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$378 | -$441 | -$516 | -$550 |
| $227 (+20%) | -$449 | -$498 | -$541 | -$550 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.