Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 33.1% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.2 ยท ฮ 0.52
SHORT CALL ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.31 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $210 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns $-89 (-5.6%) on $1,589 risked, vs +$2,121 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $210 by Jun 19
$-89
-5.6% on $1,589 risked
Max Profit
+$-89
If the stock โฅ $205 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,589
Net debit
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
19.21 / -0.56 / 2.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$1,544 | -$1,572 | -$1,588 | -$1,589 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,481 | -$1,531 | -$1,577 | -$1,589 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$1,373 | -$1,439 | -$1,530 | -$1,589 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$1,221 | -$1,283 | -$1,394 | -$1,589 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$1,112 | -$1,160 | -$1,256 | -$1,589 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$1,035 | -$1,069 | -$1,142 | -$1,589 |
| $193 (+2%) | -$955 | -$974 | -$1,016 | -$1,332 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$836 | -$830 | -$818 | -$766 |
| $208 (+10%) | -$648 | -$603 | -$514 | -$89 |
| $210 (+11%) โ target | -$605 | -$552 | -$451 | -$89 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$486 | -$417 | -$298 | -$89 |
| $227 (+20%) | -$358 | -$284 | -$177 | -$89 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.