Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $200 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$580 (3.4%) on $-580 credit (max loss $16,920), vs +$1,121 (5.9%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$1,872 | -$1,822 | -$1,790 | -$1,817 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,160 | -$1,055 | -$938 | -$873 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$585 | -$441 | -$250 | +$71 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$155 | -$1 | +$204 | +$580 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$37 | +$184 | +$368 | +$580 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$142 | +$279 | +$441 | +$580 |
| $193 (+2%) | +$230 | +$354 | +$492 | +$580 |
| $200 (+6%) โ target | +$360 | +$457 | +$547 | +$580 |
| $208 (+10%) | +$448 | +$518 | +$570 | +$580 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$513 | +$555 | +$578 | +$580 |
| $227 (+20%) | +$547 | +$571 | +$580 | +$580 |