Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 32.2% โ LOW
(-43.6% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $188.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.31 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $205 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,152 (11.7%) on $18,348 risked, vs +$1,621 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $205 by Jun 19
+$2,152
+11.7% on $18,348 risked
Max Profit
+$2,152
If the stock โฅ $205 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$18,348
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$183.48
-2.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.41 / 7.9 / -29.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$3,261 | -$3,248 | -$3,245 | -$3,245 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$2,352 | -$2,316 | -$2,302 | -$2,301 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$1,486 | -$1,411 | -$1,364 | -$1,357 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$693 | -$565 | -$452 | -$413 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$264 | -$102 | +$62 | +$153 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$183 | +$383 | +$531 |
| $193 (+2%) | +$246 | +$446 | +$681 | +$909 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$575 | +$797 | +$1,072 | +$1,475 |
| $205 (+9%) โ target | +$911 | +$1,146 | +$1,444 | +$2,152 |
| $208 (+10%) | +$1,026 | +$1,262 | +$1,561 | +$2,152 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$1,359 | +$1,585 | +$1,854 | +$2,152 |
| $227 (+20%) | +$1,593 | +$1,791 | +$2,001 | +$2,152 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.