Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 33.1% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.19 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.4 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $180 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$765 (159.8%) on $479 risked, vs $-879 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 34.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $180 by Jun 19
+$765
+159.8% on $479 risked
Max Profit
+$744
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$477
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$194.39
+2.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.04 / 3.57 / 7.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$444 | +$464 | +$473 | +$459 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$412 | +$450 | +$490 | +$478 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$349 | +$398 | +$474 | +$552 |
| $180 (-5%) โ target | +$246 | +$289 | +$368 | +$764 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$184 | +$218 | +$278 | +$444 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | +$135 | +$159 | +$199 | +$241 |
| $193 (+2%) | +$84 | +$97 | +$115 | +$70 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$7 | +$4 | -$11 | -$127 |
| $208 (+10%) | -$113 | -$140 | -$194 | -$329 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$217 | -$257 | -$323 | -$423 |
| $227 (+20%) | -$300 | -$343 | -$400 | -$461 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.