Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 33.1% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.3 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $165 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,370 (121.2%) on $1,130 risked, vs $-2,379 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 9.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $165 by Jun 19
+$1,370
+121.2% on $1,130 risked
Max Profit
+$17,870
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,130
Premium paid
Break-even
$178.70
-5.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-48.04 / -7.98 / 31.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$2,672 | +$2,682 | +$2,715 | +$2,767 |
| $160 (-15%) | +$1,825 | +$1,791 | +$1,782 | +$1,823 |
| $165 (-13%) โ target | +$1,449 | +$1,388 | +$1,346 | +$1,370 |
| $170 (-10%) | +$1,067 | +$978 | +$892 | +$879 |
| $179 (-5%) | +$427 | +$288 | +$115 | -$65 |
| $185 (-2%) | +$107 | -$52 | -$261 | -$631 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$80 | -$246 | -$469 | -$1,009 |
| $193 (+2%) | -$246 | -$415 | -$640 | -$1,130 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$457 | -$621 | -$833 | -$1,130 |
| $208 (+10%) | -$719 | -$859 | -$1,018 | -$1,130 |
| $217 (+15%) | -$890 | -$996 | -$1,094 | -$1,130 |
| $227 (+20%) | -$996 | -$1,069 | -$1,120 | -$1,130 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.