Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 33.1% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $188.79 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.4 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $210 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,381 (7.0%) on $19,619 risked, vs +$2,121 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,381
+7.0% on $19,619 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,619
Put floors you at $180
Break-even
$196.19
+3.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.66 / -9.02 / 30.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | -$1,631 | -$1,657 | -$1,661 | -$1,619 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$1,453 | -$1,535 | -$1,612 | -$1,619 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$1,153 | -$1,284 | -$1,448 | -$1,619 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$713 | -$870 | -$1,082 | -$1,619 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$382 | -$540 | -$750 | -$1,118 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$135 | -$289 | -$485 | -$740 |
| $193 (+2%) | +$131 | -$14 | -$191 | -$362 |
| $198 (+5%) | +$561 | +$433 | +$293 | +$204 |
| $208 (+10%) | +$1,348 | +$1,255 | +$1,174 | +$1,148 |
| $210 (+11%) โ target | +$1,553 | +$1,469 | +$1,399 | +$1,381 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$2,199 | +$2,138 | +$2,098 | +$2,092 |
| $227 (+20%) | +$3,091 | +$3,055 | +$3,037 | +$3,036 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.