Target Price Playground
ADP
$188.79
๐ข
ADP IV: 33.1% โ LOW
(-41.9% vs 30d avg of 57.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.2 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.3 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADP hits $215 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-750 (-23.1%) on $3,250 risked, vs +$2,621 (13.9%) for 100 shares on $18,879. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADP is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADP hits $215 by Jun 19
$-750
-23.1% on $3,250 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,250
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$157.50
-16.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
3.76 / -16.44 / 63.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $151 (-20%) | +$613 | +$582 | +$596 | +$647 |
| $160 (-15%) | -$136 | -$255 | -$326 | -$297 |
| $170 (-10%) | -$708 | -$938 | -$1,162 | -$1,241 |
| $179 (-5%) | -$1,045 | -$1,373 | -$1,770 | -$2,185 |
| $185 (-2%) | -$1,120 | -$1,487 | -$1,958 | -$2,751 |
| $189 (0%) โ spot | -$1,116 | -$1,498 | -$1,994 | -$3,129 |
| $193 (+2%) | -$1,069 | -$1,457 | -$1,959 | -$2,993 |
| $198 (+5%) | -$925 | -$1,304 | -$1,779 | -$2,427 |
| $208 (+10%) | -$505 | -$836 | -$1,205 | -$1,483 |
| $215 (+14%) โ target | -$51 | -$330 | -$602 | -$750 |
| $217 (+15%) | +$97 | -$167 | -$414 | -$539 |
| $227 (+20%) | +$829 | +$633 | +$478 | +$405 |
Uses ADP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.