Target Price Playground
ADSK
$218.45
๐ข
ADSK IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-45.0% vs 30d avg of 76.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.38 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $235 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.03 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $245 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$965 (180.3%) on $535 risked, vs +$2,655 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 14.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $245 by Jun 19
+$965
+180.3% on $535 risked
Max Profit
+$965
If the stock โฅ $235 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$535
Net debit
Break-even
$225.35
+3.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.53 / -0.92 / 0.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$434 | -$481 | -$525 | -$535 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$351 | -$413 | -$493 | -$535 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$239 | -$302 | -$409 | -$535 |
| $208 (-5%) | -$101 | -$150 | -$250 | -$535 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$10 | -$43 | -$119 | -$535 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | +$53 | +$31 | -$20 | -$535 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$116 | +$108 | +$84 | -$253 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$209 | +$222 | +$244 | +$402 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$359 | +$404 | +$490 | +$965 |
| $245 (+12%) โ target | +$419 | +$475 | +$581 | +$965 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$494 | +$561 | +$683 | +$965 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$608 | +$686 | +$813 | +$965 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.