Target Price Playground
ADSK
$218.45
๐ข
ADSK IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-45.0% vs 30d avg of 76.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $200 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.66 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $190 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$916 (84.5%) on $1,084 risked, vs $-2,845 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 6.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $190 by Jun 19
+$916
+84.5% on $1,084 risked
Max Profit
+$916
If the stock โค $200 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,084
Net debit
Break-even
$209.16
-4.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.69 / -1.08 / 6.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$605 | +$694 | +$821 | +$916 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$428 | +$511 | +$658 | +$916 |
| $190 (-13%) โ target | +$348 | +$421 | +$561 | +$916 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$218 | +$270 | +$378 | +$916 |
| $208 (-5%) | -$8 | -$1 | +$16 | +$163 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$142 | -$164 | -$208 | -$492 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | -$228 | -$268 | -$350 | -$929 |
| $223 (+2%) | -$311 | -$368 | -$481 | -$1,084 |
| $229 (+5%) | -$428 | -$505 | -$651 | -$1,084 |
| $240 (+10%) | -$599 | -$695 | -$857 | -$1,084 |
| $251 (+15%) | -$737 | -$836 | -$977 | -$1,084 |
| $262 (+20%) | -$843 | -$933 | -$1,039 | -$1,084 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.