Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $230 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$766 (4.0%) on $-766 credit (max loss $19,234), vs +$1,155 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$2,076 | -$1,941 | -$1,803 | -$1,758 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$1,346 | -$1,153 | -$915 | -$666 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$750 | -$524 | -$222 | +$426 |
| $208 (-5%) | -$287 | -$55 | +$249 | +$766 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$67 | +$156 | +$435 | +$766 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | +$58 | +$270 | +$525 | +$766 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$166 | +$366 | +$594 | +$766 |
| $230 (+5%) โ target | +$315 | +$490 | +$671 | +$766 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$472 | +$609 | +$729 | +$766 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$583 | +$684 | +$753 | +$766 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$655 | +$724 | +$762 | +$766 |