Target Price Playground
ADSK
$218.45
๐ข
ADSK IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-45.0% vs 30d avg of 76.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $218.45 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $235 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.03 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $235 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,658 (12.8%) on $20,842 risked, vs +$1,655 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $235 by Jun 19
+$2,658
+12.8% on $20,842 risked
Max Profit
+$2,658
If the stock โฅ $235 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$20,842
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$208.42
-4.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.51 / 12.32 / -36.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$3,453 | -$3,395 | -$3,368 | -$3,366 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$2,463 | -$2,355 | -$2,285 | -$2,274 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$1,544 | -$1,374 | -$1,229 | -$1,182 |
| $208 (-5%) | -$718 | -$482 | -$236 | -$89 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$274 | -$3 | +$305 | +$566 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$291 | +$636 | +$1,003 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$255 | +$563 | +$940 | +$1,440 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$603 | +$929 | +$1,341 | +$2,095 |
| $235 (+8%) โ target | +$869 | +$1,204 | +$1,630 | +$2,658 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$1,092 | +$1,429 | +$1,856 | +$2,658 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$1,476 | +$1,801 | +$2,194 | +$2,658 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$1,768 | +$2,065 | +$2,394 | +$2,658 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.