Target Price Playground
ADSK
$218.45
๐ข
ADSK IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-45.0% vs 30d avg of 76.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $190 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,150 (62.2%) on $1,850 risked, vs $-2,845 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 4.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $190 by Jun 19
+$1,150
+62.2% on $1,850 risked
Max Profit
+$20,150
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,850
Premium paid
Break-even
$201.50
-7.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.08 / -12.8 / 36.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$2,682 | +$2,635 | +$2,624 | +$2,674 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$1,774 | +$1,664 | +$1,573 | +$1,582 |
| $190 (-13%) โ target | +$1,442 | +$1,306 | +$1,176 | +$1,150 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$968 | +$794 | +$601 | +$490 |
| $208 (-5%) | +$279 | +$54 | -$233 | -$603 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$74 | -$319 | -$643 | -$1,258 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | -$286 | -$538 | -$875 | -$1,695 |
| $223 (+2%) | -$478 | -$734 | -$1,075 | -$1,850 |
| $229 (+5%) | -$731 | -$986 | -$1,317 | -$1,850 |
| $240 (+10%) | -$1,071 | -$1,305 | -$1,585 | -$1,850 |
| $251 (+15%) | -$1,320 | -$1,520 | -$1,731 | -$1,850 |
| $262 (+20%) | -$1,498 | -$1,657 | -$1,801 | -$1,850 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.