Target Price Playground
ADSK
$218.45
๐ข
ADSK IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-45.0% vs 30d avg of 76.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $218.45 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $210 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $240 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$795 (3.4%) on $23,205 risked, vs +$2,155 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $240 by Jun 19
+$795
+3.4% on $23,205 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,205
Put floors you at $210
Break-even
$232.05
+6.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.74 / -12.17 / 35.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$2,072 | -$2,162 | -$2,228 | -$2,205 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$1,809 | -$1,964 | -$2,130 | -$2,205 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$1,426 | -$1,635 | -$1,897 | -$2,205 |
| $208 (-5%) | -$912 | -$1,152 | -$1,472 | -$2,205 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$544 | -$789 | -$1,114 | -$1,797 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | -$274 | -$518 | -$835 | -$1,360 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$13 | -$224 | -$526 | -$923 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$476 | +$253 | -$15 | -$268 |
| $240 (+10%) โ target | +$1,297 | +$1,107 | +$907 | +$795 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$2,240 | +$2,091 | +$1,960 | +$1,917 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$3,215 | +$3,104 | +$3,024 | +$3,009 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.