Target Price Playground
ADSK
$218.45
๐ข
ADSK IV: 41.8% โ LOW
(-45.0% vs 30d avg of 76.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.38 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.5 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ADSK hits $250 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-388 (-11.5%) on $3,388 risked, vs +$3,155 (14.4%) for 100 shares on $21,845. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ADSK is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ADSK hits $250 by Jun 19
$-388
-11.5% on $3,388 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,388
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$186.12
-14.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.95 / -26.04 / 73.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ADSK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$1,332 | +$1,180 | +$1,098 | +$1,136 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$608 | +$330 | +$89 | +$44 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$89 | -$319 | -$765 | -$1,048 |
| $208 (-5%) | -$196 | -$705 | -$1,338 | -$2,141 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$248 | -$796 | -$1,503 | -$2,796 |
| $218 (0%) โ spot | -$233 | -$798 | -$1,531 | -$3,233 |
| $223 (+2%) | -$180 | -$752 | -$1,494 | -$3,106 |
| $229 (+5%) | -$33 | -$600 | -$1,322 | -$2,451 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$381 | -$145 | -$767 | -$1,358 |
| $250 (+14%) โ target | +$901 | +$434 | -$63 | -$388 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$1,712 | +$1,333 | +$987 | +$826 |
Uses ADSK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.