Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AGYS hits $65 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$351 (6.6%) on $-351 credit (max loss $5,349), vs +$281 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $6,219. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AGYS is at $65. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AGYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 (-20%) | -$585 | -$515 | -$435 | -$374 |
| $53 (-15%) | -$397 | -$313 | -$207 | -$63 |
| $56 (-10%) | -$238 | -$146 | -$24 | +$248 |
| $59 (-5%) | -$106 | -$12 | +$112 | +$351 |
| $61 (-2%) | -$39 | +$54 | +$174 | +$351 |
| $62 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$92 | +$207 | +$351 |
| $63 (+2%) | +$37 | +$126 | +$235 | +$351 |
| $65 (+5%) โ target | +$78 | +$163 | +$264 | +$351 |
| $68 (+10%) | +$152 | +$227 | +$306 | +$351 |
| $72 (+15%) | +$203 | +$267 | +$328 | +$351 |
| $75 (+20%) | +$242 | +$295 | +$339 | +$351 |