Target Price Playground
AGYS
$62.19
๐ข
AGYS IV: 58.8% โ LOW
(-44.7% vs 30d avg of 106.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $67 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $62.19 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $67 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.5 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AGYS hits $67 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$931 (16.1%) on $5,769 risked, vs +$481 (7.7%) for 100 shares on $6,219. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AGYS is at $67. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AGYS hits $67 by Jun 19
+$931
+16.1% on $5,769 risked
Max Profit
+$931
If the stock โฅ $67 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$5,769
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$57.69
-7.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.54 / 4.88 / -10.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AGYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 (-20%) | -$882 | -$835 | -$801 | -$794 |
| $53 (-15%) | -$628 | -$562 | -$503 | -$483 |
| $56 (-10%) | -$395 | -$310 | -$222 | -$172 |
| $59 (-5%) | -$185 | -$83 | +$36 | +$139 |
| $61 (-2%) | -$71 | +$40 | +$175 | +$326 |
| $62 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$116 | +$260 | +$450 |
| $63 (+2%) | +$67 | +$187 | +$339 | +$574 |
| $65 (+5%) | +$160 | +$286 | +$446 | +$761 |
| $67 (+8%) โ target | +$238 | +$366 | +$530 | +$931 |
| $68 (+10%) | +$298 | +$427 | +$592 | +$931 |
| $72 (+15%) | +$413 | +$541 | +$700 | +$931 |
| $75 (+20%) | +$508 | +$631 | +$777 | +$931 |
Uses AGYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.