Target Price Playground
AGYS
$62.19
๐ข
AGYS IV: 55.9% โ LOW
(-47.4% vs 30d avg of 106.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $68 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $62.19 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $59 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.35 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AGYS hits $68 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$146 (2.2%) on $6,654 risked, vs +$581 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $6,219. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AGYS is at $68. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AGYS hits $68 by Jun 19
+$146
+2.2% on $6,654 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$754
Put floors you at $59
Break-even
$66.54
+7.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.37 / -4.01 / 9.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AGYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 (-20%) | -$593 | -$655 | -$721 | -$754 |
| $53 (-15%) | -$486 | -$564 | -$660 | -$754 |
| $56 (-10%) | -$350 | -$441 | -$559 | -$754 |
| $59 (-5%) | -$188 | -$285 | -$413 | -$746 |
| $61 (-2%) | -$78 | -$176 | -$305 | -$559 |
| $62 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$97 | -$224 | -$435 |
| $63 (+2%) | +$82 | -$14 | -$137 | -$311 |
| $65 (+5%) | +$211 | +$118 | +$3 | -$124 |
| $68 (+9%) โ target | +$411 | +$325 | +$225 | +$146 |
| $72 (+15%) | +$691 | +$616 | +$538 | +$498 |
| $75 (+20%) | +$954 | +$889 | +$830 | +$809 |
Uses AGYS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.