Target Price Playground
AI
$8.28
๐ข
AI IV: 71.2% โ LOW
(-35.1% vs 30d avg of 109.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $8 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.0 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $8 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.51 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AI hits $8 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$51 (104.6%) on $49 risked, vs $-78 (-9.4%) for 100 shares on $828. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AI is at $8. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AI hits $8 by Jun 19
+$51
+104.6% on $49 risked
Max Profit
+$51
If the stock โค $8 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$49
Net debit
Break-even
$8.01
-3.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.12 / -0.06 / 0.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7 (-20%) | +$29 | +$32 | +$39 | +$51 |
| $7 (-15%) | +$22 | +$25 | +$30 | +$51 |
| $8 (-9%) โ target | +$14 | +$15 | +$18 | +$51 |
| $8 (-5%) | +$7 | +$7 | +$7 | +$14 |
| $8 (-2%) | +$3 | +$2 | -$0 | -$10 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$2 | -$5 | -$27 |
| $8 (+2%) | -$3 | -$5 | -$10 | -$44 |
| $9 (+5%) | -$7 | -$10 | -$16 | -$49 |
| $9 (+10%) | -$13 | -$18 | -$26 | -$49 |
| $10 (+15%) | -$19 | -$24 | -$33 | -$49 |
| $10 (+20%) | -$24 | -$30 | -$38 | -$49 |
Uses AI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.