Target Price Playground
AI
$8.28
๐ข
AI IV: 71.2% โ LOW
(-35.1% vs 30d avg of 109.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $8.28 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.66 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AI hits $9 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$138 (18.1%) on $762 risked, vs +$72 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $828. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AI is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AI hits $9 by Jun 19
+$138
+18.1% on $762 risked
Max Profit
+$138
If the stock โฅ $9 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$762
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$7.62
-7.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.3 / 0.71 / -1.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7 (-20%) | -$115 | -$107 | -$101 | -$100 |
| $7 (-15%) | -$82 | -$71 | -$62 | -$58 |
| $7 (-10%) | -$52 | -$39 | -$25 | -$17 |
| $8 (-5%) | -$24 | -$9 | +$9 | +$25 |
| $8 (-2%) | -$9 | +$7 | +$27 | +$49 |
| $8 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$17 | +$38 | +$66 |
| $8 (+2%) | +$9 | +$27 | +$49 | +$83 |
| $9 (+5%) | +$21 | +$40 | +$63 | +$107 |
| $9 (+9%) โ target | +$36 | +$54 | +$79 | +$138 |
| $9 (+10%) | +$40 | +$59 | +$84 | +$138 |
| $10 (+15%) | +$56 | +$75 | +$99 | +$138 |
| $10 (+20%) | +$70 | +$88 | +$111 | +$138 |
Uses AI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.