Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALAB hits $155 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,530 (12.8%) on $-1,530 credit (max loss $11,970), vs +$595 (4.0%) for 100 shares on $14,905. Options give 3.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALAB is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALAB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 (-20%) | -$1,091 | -$816 | -$470 | -$46 |
| $127 (-15%) | -$701 | -$398 | -$2 | +$699 |
| $134 (-10%) | -$359 | -$39 | +$385 | +$1,445 |
| $142 (-5%) | -$63 | +$264 | +$693 | +$1,530 |
| $146 (-2%) | +$94 | +$421 | +$844 | +$1,530 |
| $149 (0%) โ spot | +$192 | +$516 | +$932 | +$1,530 |
| $152 (+2%) | +$283 | +$604 | +$1,010 | +$1,530 |
| $155 (+4%) โ target | +$368 | +$686 | +$1,079 | +$1,530 |
| $157 (+5%) | +$409 | +$724 | +$1,110 | +$1,530 |
| $164 (+10%) | +$594 | +$893 | +$1,241 | +$1,530 |
| $171 (+15%) | +$751 | +$1,030 | +$1,334 | +$1,530 |
| $179 (+20%) | +$882 | +$1,139 | +$1,399 | +$1,530 |