Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALKT hits $18 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$554 (137.1%) on $-404 credit (max loss $0), vs +$187 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $1,613. Options give 11.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALKT is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALKT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$407 | +$405 | +$404 | +$404 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$413 | +$409 | +$405 | +$404 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$425 | +$418 | +$409 | +$404 |
| $15 (-5%) | +$441 | +$435 | +$424 | +$404 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$453 | +$449 | +$439 | +$404 |
| $16 (0%) โ spot | +$462 | +$458 | +$452 | +$417 |
| $16 (+2%) | +$470 | +$469 | +$466 | +$449 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$484 | +$485 | +$487 | +$498 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$504 | +$509 | +$519 | +$554 |
| $18 (+12%) โ target | +$510 | +$515 | +$526 | +$554 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$520 | +$527 | +$539 | +$554 |
| $19 (+20%) | +$533 | +$540 | +$548 | +$554 |