Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALKT hits $14 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$115 (747.8%) on $-15 credit (max loss $0), vs $-213 (-13.2%) for 100 shares on $1,613. Options give 56.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALKT is at $14. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALKT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | +$106 | +$110 | +$114 | +$115 |
| $14 (-15%) | +$97 | +$102 | +$109 | +$115 |
| $14 (-13%) โ target | +$93 | +$97 | +$105 | +$115 |
| $15 (-10%) | +$84 | +$87 | +$95 | +$115 |
| $15 (-5%) | +$68 | +$69 | +$71 | +$83 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$59 | +$57 | +$55 | +$34 |
| $16 (0%) โ spot | +$53 | +$50 | +$45 | +$15 |
| $16 (+2%) | +$47 | +$44 | +$37 | +$15 |
| $17 (+5%) | +$39 | +$35 | +$28 | +$15 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$30 | +$25 | +$19 | +$15 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$23 | +$20 | +$16 | +$15 |
| $19 (+20%) | +$19 | +$17 | +$15 | +$15 |