Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALKT hits $17 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$85 (6.0%) on $-85 credit (max loss $1,415), vs +$87 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $1,613. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALKT is at $17. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALKT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$125 | -$122 | -$122 | -$125 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$61 | -$54 | -$46 | -$44 |
| $15 (-10%) | -$9 | +$1 | +$15 | +$37 |
| $15 (-5%) | +$28 | +$40 | +$55 | +$85 |
| $16 (-2%) | +$44 | +$56 | +$69 | +$85 |
| $16 (0%) โ spot | +$53 | +$63 | +$75 | +$85 |
| $16 (+2%) | +$60 | +$69 | +$79 | +$85 |
| $17 (+5%) โ target | +$69 | +$76 | +$83 | +$85 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$77 | +$81 | +$85 | +$85 |
| $19 (+15%) | +$81 | +$84 | +$85 | +$85 |
| $19 (+20%) | +$83 | +$85 | +$85 | +$85 |