Target Price Playground
ALRM
$42.65
๐ก
ALRM IV: 65.7% โ NORMAL
(+9.3% vs 30d avg of 60.1%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $48 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.01 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $46 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.83 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALRM hits $48 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$182 (154.0%) on $118 risked, vs +$535 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $4,265. Options give 12.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALRM is at $48. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ALRM hits $48 by Jun 19
+$182
+154.0% on $118 risked
Max Profit
+$182
If the stock โฅ $46 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$118
Net debit
Break-even
$44.18
+3.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.34 / -0.07 / 0.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | -$84 | -$95 | -$110 | -$118 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$67 | -$79 | -$99 | -$118 |
| $38 (-10%) | -$47 | -$57 | -$78 | -$118 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$24 | -$31 | -$47 | -$118 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$10 | -$14 | -$25 | -$118 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$2 | -$9 | -$118 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$10 | +$9 | +$7 | -$68 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$24 | +$27 | +$31 | +$60 |
| $47 (+10%) | +$47 | +$55 | +$70 | +$182 |
| $48 (+13%) โ target | +$59 | +$69 | +$88 | +$182 |
| $49 (+15%) | +$69 | +$81 | +$104 | +$182 |
| $51 (+20%) | +$89 | +$104 | +$130 | +$182 |
Uses ALRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.