Target Price Playground
ALRM
$42.65
๐ก
ALRM IV: 65.7% โ NORMAL
(+9.3% vs 30d avg of 60.1%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $46 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $42.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $46 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.83 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALRM hits $46 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$618 (15.5%) on $3,982 risked, vs +$335 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $4,265. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALRM is at $46. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ALRM hits $46 by Jun 19
+$618
+15.5% on $3,982 risked
Max Profit
+$618
If the stock โฅ $46 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,982
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$39.82
-6.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.63 / 3.15 / -7.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | -$619 | -$592 | -$573 | -$570 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$441 | -$401 | -$367 | -$357 |
| $38 (-10%) | -$277 | -$224 | -$171 | -$144 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$130 | -$64 | +$10 | +$70 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$50 | +$22 | +$107 | +$198 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$75 | +$167 | +$283 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$47 | +$125 | +$222 | +$368 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$112 | +$193 | +$297 | +$496 |
| $46 (+8%) โ target | +$168 | +$251 | +$358 | +$618 |
| $47 (+10%) | +$206 | +$290 | +$398 | +$618 |
| $49 (+15%) | +$286 | +$369 | +$472 | +$618 |
| $51 (+20%) | +$350 | +$430 | +$523 | +$618 |
Uses ALRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.