Target Price Playground
ALRM
$42.65
๐ก
ALRM IV: 65.7% โ NORMAL
(+9.3% vs 30d avg of 60.1%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $38 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.01 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALRM hits $38 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$99 (24.7%) on $401 risked, vs $-465 (-10.9%) for 100 shares on $4,265. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALRM is at $38. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ALRM hits $38 by Jun 19
+$99
+24.7% on $401 risked
Max Profit
+$3,899
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$401
Premium paid
Break-even
$38.99
-8.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.28 / -2.69 / 7.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | +$535 | +$508 | +$486 | +$487 |
| $36 (-15%) | +$374 | +$333 | +$292 | +$274 |
| $38 (-11%) โ target | +$255 | +$205 | +$146 | +$99 |
| $41 (-5%) | +$106 | +$45 | -$34 | -$153 |
| $42 (-2%) | +$40 | -$24 | -$109 | -$281 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$66 | -$153 | -$366 |
| $44 (+2%) | -$37 | -$104 | -$192 | -$401 |
| $45 (+5%) | -$88 | -$155 | -$242 | -$401 |
| $47 (+10%) | -$159 | -$224 | -$304 | -$401 |
| $49 (+15%) | -$217 | -$276 | -$345 | -$401 |
| $51 (+20%) | -$262 | -$315 | -$370 | -$401 |
Uses ALRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.