Target Price Playground
ALRM
$42.65
๐ก
ALRM IV: 65.7% โ NORMAL
(+9.3% vs 30d avg of 60.1%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $47 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $42.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $41 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALRM hits $47 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$135 (2.9%) on $4,565 risked, vs +$435 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $4,265. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALRM is at $47. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ALRM hits $47 by Jun 19
+$135
+2.9% on $4,565 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$465
Put floors you at $41
Break-even
$45.65
+7.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.55 / -2.62 / 6.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | -$382 | -$418 | -$453 | -$465 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$316 | -$364 | -$420 | -$465 |
| $38 (-10%) | -$230 | -$287 | -$361 | -$465 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$124 | -$187 | -$270 | -$465 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$51 | -$115 | -$200 | -$385 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$63 | -$147 | -$300 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$55 | -$8 | -$90 | -$215 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$142 | +$80 | +$4 | -$87 |
| $47 (+10%) โ target | +$305 | +$249 | +$185 | +$135 |
| $49 (+15%) | +$468 | +$418 | +$367 | +$340 |
| $51 (+20%) | +$647 | +$605 | +$567 | +$553 |
Uses ALRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.