Target Price Playground
ALRM
$42.65
๐ก
ALRM IV: 65.7% โ NORMAL
(+9.3% vs 30d avg of 60.1%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $49 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.01 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.01 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALRM hits $49 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-202 (-25.2%) on $802 risked, vs +$635 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $4,265. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALRM is at $49. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ALRM hits $49 by Jun 19
$-202
-25.2% on $802 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$802
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$34.98
-17.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.44 / -5.91 / 14.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | +$217 | +$151 | +$96 | +$86 |
| $36 (-15%) | +$108 | +$16 | -$80 | -$127 |
| $38 (-10%) | +$34 | -$81 | -$217 | -$340 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$2 | -$135 | -$304 | -$554 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$5 | -$145 | -$327 | -$682 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$143 | -$330 | -$767 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$11 | -$134 | -$323 | -$752 |
| $45 (+5%) | +$38 | -$108 | -$295 | -$624 |
| $47 (+10%) | +$108 | -$33 | -$206 | -$411 |
| $49 (+15%) โ target | +$204 | +$73 | -$77 | -$202 |
| $51 (+20%) | +$329 | +$212 | +$90 | +$16 |
Uses ALRM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.