Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ALRM hits $45 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$216 (5.9%) on $-216 credit (max loss $3,684), vs +$235 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $4,265. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ALRM is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ALRM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 (-20%) | -$401 | -$358 | -$307 | -$272 |
| $36 (-15%) | -$271 | -$218 | -$149 | -$59 |
| $38 (-10%) | -$162 | -$102 | -$24 | +$154 |
| $41 (-5%) | -$72 | -$11 | +$69 | +$216 |
| $42 (-2%) | -$27 | +$33 | +$109 | +$216 |
| $43 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$58 | +$131 | +$216 |
| $44 (+2%) | +$24 | +$81 | +$149 | +$216 |
| $45 (+6%) โ target | +$61 | +$113 | +$173 | +$216 |
| $47 (+10%) | +$99 | +$145 | +$192 | +$216 |
| $49 (+15%) | +$131 | +$170 | +$204 | +$216 |
| $51 (+20%) | +$155 | +$187 | +$211 | +$216 |