Target Price Playground
AMAT
$399.49
๐ข
AMAT IV: 52.7% โ LOW
(-34.0% vs 30d avg of 79.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.82 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $430 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.58 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $445 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,776 (145.1%) on $1,224 risked, vs +$4,551 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $39,949. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $445 by Jun 19
+$1,776
+145.1% on $1,224 risked
Max Profit
+$1,776
If the stock โฅ $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,224
Net debit
Break-even
$412.24
+3.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.4 / -0.97 / -3.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 (-20%) | -$889 | -$1,003 | -$1,151 | -$1,224 |
| $340 (-15%) | -$715 | -$835 | -$1,032 | -$1,224 |
| $360 (-10%) | -$505 | -$611 | -$818 | -$1,224 |
| $380 (-5%) | -$270 | -$341 | -$502 | -$1,224 |
| $392 (-2%) | -$122 | -$164 | -$273 | -$1,224 |
| $399 (0%) โ spot | -$22 | -$43 | -$109 | -$1,224 |
| $407 (+2%) | +$78 | +$79 | +$60 | -$476 |
| $419 (+5%) | +$227 | +$260 | +$313 | +$722 |
| $439 (+10%) | +$467 | +$551 | +$712 | +$1,776 |
| $445 (+11%) โ target | +$530 | +$627 | +$813 | +$1,776 |
| $459 (+15%) | +$688 | +$813 | +$1,048 | +$1,776 |
| $479 (+20%) | +$885 | +$1,039 | +$1,306 | +$1,776 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.