Target Price Playground
AMAT
$399.49
๐ข
AMAT IV: 52.7% โ LOW
(-34.0% vs 30d avg of 79.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $36.35 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.4 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $350 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,705 (131.7%) on $1,295 risked, vs $-4,949 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $39,949. Options give 10.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $350 by Jun 19
+$1,705
+131.7% on $1,295 risked
Max Profit
+$1,705
If the stock โค $370 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,295
Net debit
Break-even
$387.05
-3.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.91 / -1.55 / 3.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 (-20%) | +$1,122 | +$1,249 | +$1,460 | +$1,705 |
| $340 (-15%) | +$887 | +$991 | +$1,197 | +$1,705 |
| $350 (-12%) โ target | +$753 | +$837 | +$1,013 | +$1,705 |
| $360 (-10%) | +$627 | +$687 | +$822 | +$1,705 |
| $380 (-5%) | +$357 | +$361 | +$378 | +$753 |
| $392 (-2%) | +$198 | +$166 | +$106 | -$445 |
| $399 (0%) โ spot | +$93 | +$39 | -$69 | -$1,244 |
| $407 (+2%) | -$8 | -$84 | -$235 | -$1,295 |
| $419 (+5%) | -$153 | -$257 | -$461 | -$1,295 |
| $439 (+10%) | -$375 | -$514 | -$767 | -$1,295 |
| $459 (+15%) | -$567 | -$724 | -$982 | -$1,295 |
| $479 (+20%) | -$728 | -$889 | -$1,120 | -$1,295 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.