Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
AMAT
$399.49
๐ŸŸข
AMAT IV: 52.7% โ€” LOW (-34.0% vs 30d avg of 79.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $400 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.0 ยท ฮ” -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.86 ยท ฮ” -0.36
P&L at Expiry Now $399 Target $380 $280 $399 $519
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If AMAT hits $380 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,850 (114.6%) on $1,614 risked, vs $-1,949 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $39,949. Options give 23.4ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if AMAT hits $380 by Jun 19
+$1,850
+114.6% on $1,614 risked
Max Profit
+$1,790
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$1,483
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$420.10
+5.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-7.25 / 3.88 / 14.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

AMAT Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$320 (-20%) +$339 +$425 +$511 +$405
$340 (-15%) +$297 +$413 +$580 +$634
$360 (-10%) +$219 +$349 +$573 +$1,051
$380 (-5%) โ† target +$105 +$228 +$455 +$1,732
$392 (-2%) +$28 +$138 +$341 +$1,090
$399 (0%) โ† spot -$30 +$68 +$245 +$697
$407 (+2%) -$91 -$8 +$138 +$347
$419 (+5%) -$187 -$128 -$37 -$102
$439 (+10%) -$353 -$339 -$345 -$667
$459 (+15%) -$519 -$548 -$637 -$1,045
$479 (+20%) -$679 -$745 -$892 -$1,285
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.