Target Price Playground
AMAT
$399.49
๐ข
AMAT IV: 52.7% โ LOW
(-34.0% vs 30d avg of 79.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.82 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $445 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$518 (13.0%) on $3,982 risked, vs +$4,551 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $39,949. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $445 by Jun 19
+$518
+13.0% on $3,982 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,982
Premium paid
Break-even
$439.82
+10.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.26 / -30.25 / 67.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 (-20%) | -$3,231 | -$3,581 | -$3,884 | -$3,982 |
| $340 (-15%) | -$2,743 | -$3,217 | -$3,705 | -$3,982 |
| $360 (-10%) | -$2,083 | -$2,665 | -$3,344 | -$3,982 |
| $380 (-5%) | -$1,239 | -$1,900 | -$2,727 | -$3,982 |
| $392 (-2%) | -$645 | -$1,336 | -$2,217 | -$3,982 |
| $399 (0%) โ spot | -$213 | -$917 | -$1,816 | -$3,982 |
| $407 (+2%) | +$246 | -$463 | -$1,368 | -$3,234 |
| $419 (+5%) | +$984 | +$277 | -$613 | -$2,036 |
| $439 (+10%) | +$2,337 | +$1,658 | +$847 | -$38 |
| $445 (+11%) โ target | +$2,738 | +$2,072 | +$1,291 | +$518 |
| $459 (+15%) | +$3,824 | +$3,198 | +$2,503 | +$1,959 |
| $479 (+20%) | +$5,426 | +$4,866 | +$4,299 | +$3,957 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.