Target Price Playground
AMAT
$399.49
๐ข
AMAT IV: 52.7% โ LOW
(-34.0% vs 30d avg of 79.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $36.35 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $350 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,365 (37.6%) on $3,635 risked, vs $-4,949 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $39,949. Options give 3.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $350 by Jun 19
+$1,365
+37.6% on $3,635 risked
Max Profit
+$36,365
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,635
Premium paid
Break-even
$363.65
-8.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.87 / -28.08 / 67.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 (-20%) | +$4,828 | +$4,585 | +$4,391 | +$4,406 |
| $340 (-15%) | +$3,317 | +$2,952 | +$2,571 | +$2,408 |
| $350 (-12%) โ target | +$2,597 | +$2,172 | +$1,689 | +$1,365 |
| $360 (-10%) | +$1,981 | +$1,507 | +$936 | +$411 |
| $380 (-5%) | +$827 | +$274 | -$445 | -$1,587 |
| $392 (-2%) | +$223 | -$361 | -$1,133 | -$2,785 |
| $399 (0%) โ spot | -$144 | -$740 | -$1,532 | -$3,584 |
| $407 (+2%) | -$484 | -$1,086 | -$1,883 | -$3,635 |
| $419 (+5%) | -$944 | -$1,544 | -$2,325 | -$3,635 |
| $439 (+10%) | -$1,589 | -$2,160 | -$2,863 | -$3,635 |
| $459 (+15%) | -$2,099 | -$2,617 | -$3,204 | -$3,635 |
| $479 (+20%) | -$2,495 | -$2,947 | -$3,406 | -$3,635 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.