Target Price Playground
AMAT
$399.49
๐ข
AMAT IV: 52.7% โ LOW
(-34.0% vs 30d avg of 79.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $399.49 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $430 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.58 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $430 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$5,809 (15.6%) on $37,191 risked, vs +$3,051 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $39,949. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $430 by Jun 19
+$5,809
+15.6% on $37,191 risked
Max Profit
+$5,809
If the stock โฅ $430 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$37,191
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$371.91
-6.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.14 / 29.28 / -70.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $320 (-20%) | -$5,649 | -$5,412 | -$5,257 | -$5,232 |
| $340 (-15%) | -$3,963 | -$3,611 | -$3,319 | -$3,234 |
| $360 (-10%) | -$2,417 | -$1,942 | -$1,470 | -$1,237 |
| $380 (-5%) | -$1,028 | -$438 | +$228 | +$761 |
| $392 (-2%) | -$276 | +$373 | +$1,145 | +$1,959 |
| $399 (0%) โ spot | +$192 | +$873 | +$1,708 | +$2,758 |
| $407 (+2%) | +$632 | +$1,341 | +$2,227 | +$3,557 |
| $419 (+5%) | +$1,241 | +$1,981 | +$2,923 | +$4,755 |
| $430 (+8%) โ target | +$1,727 | +$2,484 | +$3,452 | +$5,809 |
| $439 (+10%) | +$2,125 | +$2,888 | +$3,860 | +$5,809 |
| $459 (+15%) | +$2,856 | +$3,607 | +$4,537 | +$5,809 |
| $479 (+20%) | +$3,450 | +$4,163 | +$4,997 | +$5,809 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.