Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.11 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.15 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $275 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,203 (151.1%) on $797 risked, vs +$2,996 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $275 by Jun 19
+$1,203
+151.1% on $797 risked
Max Profit
+$1,203
If the stock โฅ $265 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$797
Net debit
Break-even
$252.97
+3.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.57 / -0.28 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$546 | -$623 | -$730 | -$796 |
| $208 (-15%) | -$432 | -$510 | -$643 | -$796 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$299 | -$365 | -$498 | -$796 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$152 | -$195 | -$295 | -$796 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$61 | -$86 | -$152 | -$796 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$11 | -$50 | -$792 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$62 | +$64 | +$53 | -$302 |
| $257 (+5%) | +$154 | +$176 | +$209 | +$433 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$301 | +$355 | +$456 | +$1,204 |
| $275 (+12%) โ target | +$364 | +$431 | +$557 | +$1,204 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$439 | +$519 | +$670 | +$1,204 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$564 | +$663 | +$841 | +$1,204 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.