Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.06 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.77 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $215 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,071 (115.2%) on $929 risked, vs $-3,004 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 9.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $215 by Jun 19
+$1,071
+115.2% on $929 risked
Max Profit
+$1,071
If the stock โค $225 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$929
Net debit
Break-even
$235.71
-3.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.92 / -1.41 / 4.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | +$644 | +$724 | +$866 | +$1,071 |
| $208 (-15%) | +$493 | +$555 | +$682 | +$1,071 |
| $215 (-12%) โ target | +$404 | +$451 | +$554 | +$1,071 |
| $221 (-10%) | +$330 | +$362 | +$437 | +$1,071 |
| $233 (-5%) | +$163 | +$159 | +$159 | +$292 |
| $240 (-2%) | +$64 | +$39 | -$8 | -$443 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$39 | -$116 | -$929 |
| $250 (+2%) | -$62 | -$115 | -$218 | -$929 |
| $257 (+5%) | -$152 | -$222 | -$358 | -$929 |
| $270 (+10%) | -$290 | -$382 | -$551 | -$929 |
| $282 (+15%) | -$411 | -$516 | -$693 | -$929 |
| $294 (+20%) | -$515 | -$624 | -$788 | -$929 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.