Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $255 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,377 (6.5%) on $-1,377 credit (max loss $21,123), vs +$996 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$2,321 | -$2,054 | -$1,746 | -$1,520 |
| $208 (-15%) | -$1,576 | -$1,252 | -$840 | -$295 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$945 | -$586 | -$111 | +$931 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$422 | -$53 | +$433 | +$1,377 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$158 | +$207 | +$677 | +$1,377 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$359 | +$810 | +$1,377 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$145 | +$494 | +$921 | +$1,377 |
| $255 (+4%) โ target | +$280 | +$617 | +$1,016 | +$1,377 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$599 | +$892 | +$1,201 | +$1,377 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$801 | +$1,052 | +$1,286 | +$1,377 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$954 | +$1,162 | +$1,332 | +$1,377 |